Tuesday, November 5, 2013

The TBCS - 1st Edition

For those of you wanting a more precise version of the BCS, I have created my own formula to rank the 2013 college football teams.  The following is for recreational purposes only.

  1.     Alabama          310.48
  2.     Oregon            297.10
  3.     Ohio State       276.81
  4.     Florida State   265.04
  5.     Clemson          249.73
  6.     Stanford          234.06
  7.     Texas A&M    165.73
  8.     Louisville        162.30
  9.     LSU                 160.65
10.     Oklahoma        152.95

My formula takes into account a team's position in the polls throughout the entire season, not just for one week.  This is why you don't see Baylor in the top 10.  Even though they are undefeated, Baylor is #13 in my system and will need to continue to impress in order to move up in the rankings.  Strength of schedule is another important component of the calculation.  Margin of victory/defeat comes into play, but it's a small fraction of the overall picture. 

If the season were to end today, my bowl games would be as follows:

Championship:      Alabama vs Oregon
Rose:                     Ohio State vs Stanford
Orange:                 Florida State vs Oklahoma
Sugar:                   Clemson vs Texas A&M
Fiesta:                   Louisville vs Baylor

The Fiesta is the biggest clunker on the list.  It's unfortunate that the NCAA has a rule that only two teams from any one conference can participate in a major bowl.  But, if you like offense, the final score of this game might be 84 to 77, as both teams play defense about as good as our government's website allows people to purchase health insurance. 

The upcoming week offers a couple of games that will have an impact on the rankings: Oregon vs Stanford, and Alabama vs LSU.  If both of the favorites win, Oregon can close the gap on the Tide. 

Check back next week for an updated version. 

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