Tuesday, November 26, 2013

TBCS Edition 3 - Changes At The Top

It was quite an interesting and entertaining college football weekend.  The Ducks flew south to Tucson but decided not to come back.  Playing uninspired football, Oregon was soundly defeated by the Arizona Wildcats.  Realization of a non title game appearance set in on the Ducks' mindset.  I guess a possible appearance in the Rose Bowl wasn't enough incentive.  Pity. 

The real Baylor Bears showed up in Stillwater, Oklahoma.  Pistol Pete got his shotgun out, and these Bears made for easy target practice.  For the first nine games on the schedule, Baylor won all of their games by a wide margin.  I gave some credit for their win over Oklahoma,  but aside from the Sooners, the schedule for Baylor has been mostly pastry.  To borrow from a sign I saw on college game day, "Sucks to B U."

Florida State scored 80 in a victory over a tough Idaho squad.  Sorry, I couldn't make it through that sentence without a chuckle.  People, it was IDAHO.   The Seminoles must have needed a break from their grueling ACC schedule.  Coming up next is a watered down Florida Gators roster, whom were just Muschamped by Georgia Southern.  I may have just coined a new phrase; whenever a Division 1 school loses to a Division 2 school, it will be known as Muschamped.  After the win over the Gators will be the ACC championship game, possibly against Duke.  Okay, I'm laughing again.  The conference championship game opponent might be DUKE!   And Ohio State plays the easy schedule.

Speaking of the Buckeyes, it was a relatively easy 42 - 14 victory over the Indiana Hoosiers.  Honestly, I was expecting more from the Indiana offense.  Or, has Ohio State finally figured out how to play defense?  We will find out this weekend.  Memo to Urban Meyer:  Ohio State has to play Michigan before the Big 10 championship game.  The most dangerous type of animal is a wounded animal, and the Wolverines are hurting.  Other than The Game, the only item left for Michigan is an invitation to the Kraft Macaroni & Cheese Bowl, so I am certain that a win over Ohio State, ending the Buckeyes current winning streak and possible NCAA championship game appearance would set aside all the disappointments up to this point.

As always, the following rankings are for recreational purposes only. Feel free to discuss them with your families at the table during your Thanksgiving feast.  Mmmmm turducken.

  1.          ALABAMA                    402.31
  2.          OHIO STATE                 348.34
  3.          FLORIDA STATE           341.82
  4.          OREGON                      321.01
  5.          CLEMSON                    314.43
  6.          STANFORD                   284.59
  7.          LSU                              200.68
  8.          LOUISVILLE                 199.65
  9.          OKLAHOMA STATE      195.46
10.          BAYLOR                       194.39

Happy Thanksgiving everyone.





Monday, November 11, 2013

TBCS Edition 2 - No Major Changes

Even though there were some upsets, the TBCS remains similar to last week.  The following is for recreational purposes only.  Print it out and take it to the bathroom with you.


  1.      ALABAMA                349.69
  2.     OREGON                   311.04
  3.     OHIO STATE              299.81
  4.     FLORIDA STATE        290.60
  5.     STANFORD               279.12
  6.     CLEMSON                 269.73
  7.     TEXAS A&M             181.83
  8.     LOUISVILLE             176.51
  9.     LSU                          167.44
10.     BAYLOR                   163.42

  
The top ranked team in the country, Alabama, defeated a good LSU team by a score of 38 - 17.  Up to this point, there has been concern about Alabama's defense, but not anymore.  Auburn should provide a test, but I see the Tide rolling into the SEC championship game undefeated.

Oregon, ranked # 2 last week, suffered a 26 -20 defeat to Stanford.  Normally a loss would hurt a team's ranking, but a 6 point loss to the # 5 team does not do any significant damage.  Remember, the TBCS is a points earnings system that covers the entire season, not just one week.  The other schools gained some ground, but the Ducks have earned enough up thus far to remain in second. 

Ohio State was on a bye week.  The gap between the Buckeyes and Oregon closed a little bit thanks to the Ducks' loss but not enough for OSU to climb into second.  If these two schools were to win out, I don't see any possible way Ohio State overtakes Oregon.  It really depends on how high Michigan State climbs in the polls and then a Buckeye victory over the Spartans in the Big 10 championship game. 

Florida State remains at # 4 despite a 59 - 3 blowout victory Wake Forest University.  For those of you that think this win should carry more significance, I borrow a saying from Cris Carter....C'mon Man.  If you think Oregon and Ohio State wouldn't have given the Demon Deacons the same kind of beat down, I again say C'mon Man! Why are we overvaluing Florida State's stroll thru the ACC garden?   

Stanford, thanks to their win over Oregon, jumps to the 5 spot in our rankings.  The Cardinal (yes, it's a color, not a bird) took control of the Pac-12 North and should play in the championship game against UCLA.  Baylor moved into the top ten.  They looked good in their victory over Oklahoma, but I see no possible way the Bears play for the national championship. 

I admit, the TBCS is probably not the best method to decide a national championship game based on the current NCAA system.  However, imagine if you will an eight team playoff and the TBCS was used to determine the seeding.  There would be a few very entertaining match-ups.

See you all next week. 


Tuesday, November 5, 2013

The TBCS - 1st Edition

For those of you wanting a more precise version of the BCS, I have created my own formula to rank the 2013 college football teams.  The following is for recreational purposes only.

  1.     Alabama          310.48
  2.     Oregon            297.10
  3.     Ohio State       276.81
  4.     Florida State   265.04
  5.     Clemson          249.73
  6.     Stanford          234.06
  7.     Texas A&M    165.73
  8.     Louisville        162.30
  9.     LSU                 160.65
10.     Oklahoma        152.95

My formula takes into account a team's position in the polls throughout the entire season, not just for one week.  This is why you don't see Baylor in the top 10.  Even though they are undefeated, Baylor is #13 in my system and will need to continue to impress in order to move up in the rankings.  Strength of schedule is another important component of the calculation.  Margin of victory/defeat comes into play, but it's a small fraction of the overall picture. 

If the season were to end today, my bowl games would be as follows:

Championship:      Alabama vs Oregon
Rose:                     Ohio State vs Stanford
Orange:                 Florida State vs Oklahoma
Sugar:                   Clemson vs Texas A&M
Fiesta:                   Louisville vs Baylor

The Fiesta is the biggest clunker on the list.  It's unfortunate that the NCAA has a rule that only two teams from any one conference can participate in a major bowl.  But, if you like offense, the final score of this game might be 84 to 77, as both teams play defense about as good as our government's website allows people to purchase health insurance. 

The upcoming week offers a couple of games that will have an impact on the rankings: Oregon vs Stanford, and Alabama vs LSU.  If both of the favorites win, Oregon can close the gap on the Tide. 

Check back next week for an updated version.